In the near future, coffee will be "quite scarce," according to a former White House chef

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Sam Kass, a former chef at the White House, is warning about the future of coffee.

In an interview with People earlier this week, the former first chef, who also served as the White House’s first-ever senior nutrition adviser, revealed that he is now focusing on sustainable agriculture because he is already concerned about the sustainability of some of the world’s most cherished crops.
Many of the foods we love and generally take for granted are actually in danger, according to Kass. And as you can see, in the near future, many of those will become fairly scarce, some will be virtually impossible for most people to obtain, and others will see major price increases.

He especially mentioned that things like wine, chocolate, seafood, rice, and coffee, which are consumed by an estimated two billion people worldwide every day, are all in danger. And a number of recent research appear to support Kass’ assertions.

In the scientific journal Plos One, researchers from Zurich University of Applied Sciences’ Institute of Natural Resource Sciences assessed the effects of climate change on coffee, cashews, and avocados in January 2022. Coffee showed to be most vulnerable to climate change, with negative effects predominating in all growing locations, mostly because of rising temperatures, the research team reported.

According to the study, all three crops would need to adapt to climate change in the majority of their key growing locations, and in the case of coffee, “replacement of arabica with robusta coffee in certain places” would probably be required. The team continued, “Policies and methods are required to ensure that shifts in production areas will not lead to negative environmental impacts such as deforestation, loss of biodiversity, or ecosystem services, even with this mitigation.

The researchers noted that “the key coffee-producing countries evaluated (Brazil, Vietnam, Indonesia, Colombia) are all substantially affected by climate change with a strong drop in appropriate areas,” and that these changes are projected to occur within the next three decades.

This research supports two others that were featured on Science.org in 2019 and that predicted that at least 60% of all wild coffee species are in danger of going extinct, possibly within the next ten years. Many of these species have benefits beyond just satiating your daily caffeine addiction.

“There are more than two or three different species of coffee, but the majority of customers and even many industry representatives are unaware of this. There are 124 coffee species that naturally occur in tropical Africa, Asia, Australasia, and the islands of the Indian Ocean (Madagascar, Comoros, and Mascarene Islands) “One of the research’ authors stated this in their article that was published in Science Advances.

These species have beneficial characteristics that are helpful in the growth of coffee, including climatic tolerance, and in particular drought tolerance, pest and disease resistance, low or no caffeine content, and sensory (taste) improvement.

And in August, Bloomberg reported that Arabica farmers in Brazil, the top exporter of coffee, are once again experiencing significant losses in their crop. According to Bloomberg, the crop already experienced setbacks due to freakish weather, resulting in lower yields that pose a threat to prolong a global supply shortage.

Guilherme Morya, senior economist at Rabobank, told the Financial Review that because of the shortfall, “Global prices will continue to rise, and the uncertainty on Brazilian supply is one of the primary reasons.”

So what options does the average consumer have? Try having a cup of coffee that is more sustainable to start, starting with choosing fair-trade-certified coffee. According to Fair Trade Certified’s website, these products must adhere to fair trade standards, which “ensure safe working environments and improved conditions, salaries, working hours, benefits, and the eradication of forced labor and poverty.” “You can be confident a product has met strict social, environmental, and economic requirements when you see the Fair Trade Certified label.” Look for certified B-corp coffee companies as well, as they are required to adhere to the same exacting social and environmental requirements.

Keeping up with the efforts of groups like World Coffee Research, which uses “private sector assistance to drive public funding to our national partners,” is the next stage. These partners do research on topics including plant breeding innovation to grow plants that are more hardy and make such plants more accessible to farmers around the world. You can also donate to organizations like the U.C. Davis Coffee Center to support its research on agricultural engineering, plant science, sustainability, and other topics if you really want to back up your words with deeds. In that way, hopefully, future generations will enjoy a few more cups of coffee.

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